MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1152 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2014 VALID FEB 03/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DON'T APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LARGER SCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE QPF AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE REMAIN...CREATING WINTER WEATHER FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. FOR DISCUSSION REGARDING THE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION....REFER TO TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD RESPECTIVELY. ...SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE 500MB TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON WED AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW TRACK...PLACING IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THAT SAID...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. ...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO NW/NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HERE TOO THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS NOTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... PEREIRA