MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 152 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014 VALID FEB 03/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE CMC/UKMET/ECMWF ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DON'T APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LARGER SCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. ANY REMAINING DIFFERENCES IN QPF OR THERMAL STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEYOND 04/00Z. FOR DISCUSSION REGARDING THE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION....REFER TO TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD RESPECTIVELY. ...SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: NON NAM BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE 12Z NAM WAS ONE OF THE SHARPER/SLOWER SOLNS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE H50 TROF WHCIH EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IT ALSO DEPICTS A SFC LOW CLOSER TO NYLI/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WAS NORTH OF OTHER MODELS. THEN THE NAM GOT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED ON THE STRONGER SIDE. FOR THOSE REASONS...HAVE RECOMMENDED A NON NAM SOLN GIVEN OVERALL GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT AND GOOD 12Z RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE 03/00Z RUNS. ...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO NW/NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HERE TOO THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS NOTED THROUGH THURSDAY. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... BANN