MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 226 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014 VALID APR 07/1200 UTC THRU APR 11/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS. TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES, PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH SHOW SOME ISSUES WITH SYSTEM AND/OR FRONTAL PROGRESSION: ONE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED QUICKER WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. WITH THE ONTARIO SYSTEM, THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS SLOW DUE TO ITS MORE AMPLIFIED NATURE AND THE 12Z NAM PROGRESSES THE FRONT SLIGHTLY QUICKER INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN WILL DEAL WITH THESE ISSUES EFFECTIVELY AND OBEY RECENT MODEL TRENDS. THIS CHOICE IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEMS' PROGRESSIVE NATURE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ROTH