MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 232 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 VALID MAY 11/0000 UTC THRU MAY 14/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND ECMWF ...DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SURFACE LOW AND FRONT CROSSING THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SPREAD AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS CONTINUING TO NARROW AND CONSOLIDATE AROUND A COMMON SOLN. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS A DEEPER AND SLOWER OUTLIER BEGINNING BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON AND TUES. THE SLOWER NAM WITH ITS HEIGHT FALLS ALSO TRANSLATES INTO A SLOWER SFC LOW TRACK ALONG WITH ITS FRONT. THE GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL EARLY MON...WHEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT OF A FASTER OUTLIER WITH ITS EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC LOW. THE GEM/UKMET AND ECMWF CLUSTER WELL WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND WITH THE SFC LOW/FRONT EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GEM DOES EVENTUALLY BECOME A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY BECOMES SLOW LIKE THE NAM WITH ITS FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THE LATEST ECENS MEAN AND TO SOME EXTENT THE LATEST GEFS MEAN SUPPORT ESP THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLNS. SO..BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CLUSTERING AND TRENDS...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET. ...NORTHEASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECASTING A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT PASSES OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS HANDLE THIS ENERGY COMPARABLY WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. THE NAM IS SEEN AS A SLOW AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER OUTLIER OUTLIER WITH THE ENERGY CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON MON. WILL FAVOR A NON-NAM CONSENSUS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON