MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014 VALID MAY 23/0000 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE MANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A CLOSED LOW AS IT SLOWLY EDGES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES APPEARS LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SREF AS THE SLOWEST...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS...AND THE EC MEAN THE FASTEST THROUGH MON MORNING. DESPITE A BROAD SPREAD SEEN IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND NOW THAT THE 00Z UKMET HAS JOINED THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS...A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA TODAY/SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. CLOSED UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE PAC NW ON SUN/MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO