MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 230 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE SHOULD IRON OUT ANY RESIDUAL ISSUES, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THEIR AMPLIFIED NATURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT. CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH MORE QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPARED TO THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS SLOWER (INCLUDING THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS), AND THAT THERE IS NO UPSTREAM KICKER IN SIGHT, PREFER A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS AMPLIFIED NATURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT. POSSIBLE 700 HPA SYSTEM NEAR WI/MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM THAT TRACKS/SHEARS OUT THROUGH NEBRASKA, SOUTHERN WI, AND TOWARDS MI WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH