MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 245 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014 VALID JUN 03/0000 UTC THRU JUN 06/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION ALONG WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CLOSING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE LOW POSITION OFFSHORE ******************************************************************* ******************************* PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS AND 21Z SREF MEAN...AND HAS BECOME DEEPER WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THU OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF POSITION. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEST AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER 60 HOURS...AND BECAUSE OF THIS ITS SOLUTION IS NO LONGER PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z CMC AND 00Z NAM ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET LOOKS LIKE A BETTER FIT WITH RESPECT TO THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE/WED ******************************************************************* PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS SLOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AS WAS THE 21Z SREF MEAN...WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE CORRECT. THE 00Z CMC AND UKMET APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREFERRED BLEND. SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WED THROUGH FRI ******************************************************************* ******** PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU. THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMBINATION APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE IN THE BALLPARK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...AS IS THE 00Z CMC...THOUGH BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND CMC WERE A TAD SLOWER. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... HAYES