MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1225 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 VALID JUN 12/0000 UTC THRU JUN 15/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM/00Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE BUT FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW FEATURE CROSSING THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI...AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT AND SUN. THE 00Z NAM GRADUALLY BECOMES THE SLOWEST SOLN IN ADVANCING THE HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS...AND ESP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM AND 00Z GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEPTH AND TIMING. THESE SOLNS ALSO HAVE STRONG AGREEMENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM AND GFS ATTM AS A RESULT. ...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEW TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK ON SAT WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NORTHWEST ON SUN. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO SHARP WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO WA STATE BY EARLY SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM WERE A LITTLE SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS SHARP. THE 00Z GFS APPEARED TO BE A RELATIVELY FLAT OUTLIER WITH THE INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND THIS WILL NOT BE A PREFERRED SOLN ATTM. THE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING INVOLVES THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM AND 00Z NAM. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK...BUT THE ECENS MEAN FAVORS A SOLN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GEM AND NAM CAMP. WILL FAVOR A SOLN TWD THE 12Z ECMWF AS AN OVERALL COMPROMISE. ...DEEP CYCLONE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURS/FRI... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 12Z UKMET WAS NOTED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALOFT AND ALSO A LITTLE FASTER. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM TEND TO CLUSTER BETTER NOW WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT 12Z ECMWF...WITH THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN BETTER OVERALL CONTINUITY SEEN RUN TO RUN WITH THE ECMWF...A SOLN TWD THE ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED ATTM. ...CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS... PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS ATTM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A ROBUST MCV WILL RESULT FROM THIS AND ADVANCE ESEWD EARLY THURS THROUGH SERN KS AND CLIP PORTIONS OF NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NRN AR THROUGH MIDDAY THURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH DEFINITION THE SYS WILL HAVE BY THURS NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE ENERGY SHOULD ADVANCE ESEWD INTO THE TN VLY THURS NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON ESE TRACKING MCV THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO TRACK THE CORE OF ITS VORT CENTER TOO FAR NORTH...AND CERTAINLY NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL PREFER A NON-GFS COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. ...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH THIS SYS. WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE ANY LINGERING SMALLER SCALE DIFFS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON THURS AND THEN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN ON FRI. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON