MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 241 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014 VALID JUN 14/0000 UTC THRU JUN 17/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE ECMWF ...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUN... ...SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCD CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z NAM IS JUST A TAD DEEPER ALOFT WITH THE EJECTING ENERGY VERSUS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SFC...THE NAM WITH THE SFC LOW THAT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND SRN CANADA EVENTUALLY BECOMES THE WEAKEST AS COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z GEM/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE 00Z UKMET FOR ITS PART CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE NON-NAM CONSENSUS UNTIL MON AS THE ENERGY IS CROSSING INTO ONTARIO. THE UKMET THOUGH GRADUALLY BECOMES A TAD SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVEN BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN. ...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SUN THROUGH TUES... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK AND INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 00Z NAM IS AGAIN A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. THE TROUGH WHILE INITIALLY BROAD IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHWEST MON AND TUES...YIELDING A NEW MID LVL CLOSED LOW FEATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT EJECTING THE SYS. THE NAM DOES NOT SUPPORT AS MUCH ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET SHOW WELL-DEVELOPED CLOSED LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST BY MON AND TUES. THE 00Z GEM INDICATES THE SAME...BUT IS PERHAPS JUST A TAD TOO DEEP AS COMPARED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CLUSTER QUITE WELL AND WITH LARGER SCALE SUPPORT AGAIN FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND THE ECENS MEAN...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. ...UPPER TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST ON SAT... ...SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT/SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET ARE A BIT WEAKER/NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND AND END UP A BIT FASTER BY SUN AS THE ENERGY AND A SFC LOW CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 00Z GEM/00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS ARE MORE STRONGLY CLUSTERED...AND THIS CLUSTER WILL BE PREFERRED. ...BROAD WEAKNESS/TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST/FLORIDA... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE A WEAK ELONGATED TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND ESP THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE ON THE LARGER SCALE...SO WILL SUGGEST A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE ANY SMALLER SCALE DIFFS WITH THE LINGERING VORT ENERGY. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON