MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 117 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 VALID JUN 25/1200 UTC THRU JUN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW SIMILAR SPREAD. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE TO DEAL WITH THE LINGERING SPREAD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TROUGH/LOW MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE HAS BEEN A DECIDED TREND TOWARDS A STRONGER 700 HPA DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS APPEAR TO SHOW GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK/CONTAMINATION HERE, THE TREND IS IN THEIR FAVOR. IN CASE THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE TOO STRONG, A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. SEE WPC QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE QPF PREFERENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH