MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 113 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 VALID JUN 26/0000 UTC THRU JUN 29/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT TO EACH OTHER AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARED TO THE 12Z UKMET/CMC WHICH ARE DISPLACED REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM THE BETTER REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. TROUGH/LOW MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY WITH THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF/CMC...THESE IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT HERE TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE. GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A WEAK 850-700 MB WAVE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...IS FORECAST TO RIDE ATOP A LOW LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIKELY TRACK TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SUN MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK...BUT NO SINGLE MODEL APPEARS OUT OF LINE HERE. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED FOR THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS...BUT REFER TO WPC QPF GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS CONCERNING RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FRI/SAT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. ARE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO