MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 243 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VALID JUN 27/0000 UTC THRU JUN 30/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA/THE PLAINS SAT/SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM...12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS IS SOUTHWARD DISPLACED FROM THE REMAINING...GOOD...MODEL AGREEMENT AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN SRN CANADA BY SUN MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF MAKE UP A GOOD COMPROMISE...SUPPORTED BY THE MEANS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN IN THE ECMWF. THE GFS MEANWHILE...HAS BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT FROM RUN TO RUN. GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...00Z UKMET..12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A WEAK 850-700 MB LOW FOUND OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA AT 00Z/27 IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD OVER THE TOP OF A PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MODELS DIVERGE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE 00Z CMC IS THE STRONGEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT UNSUPPORTED. THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET MAKE UP A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DISPLACED THE LOW FARTHER EAST BY MON MORNING...WHICH IS A BERAK FROM CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY AND WILL NOT BE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. THE WPC PREFERENCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH WPC/NHC COORDINATION FROM DAYSHIFT ON 6/26...AND WITH THIS MORNINGS WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTER. FOR QPF DETAILS AND PREFERENCES...SEE OUR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSION. CLOSED LOW OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY (TODAY) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE SHOULD RESOLVE ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO