MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1219 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 VALID JUN 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 02/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. CONVECTIVE FRONTAL WAVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) GIVES THIS SYSTEM A 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE DROPS IT SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY 29.5N 77W AND THEN STALLS IT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE POINTS COORDINATED BETWEEN NHC AND OUR MEDIUM DESK YESTERDAY FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND CLOSE TO A 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE, SO PREFER THEIR COMPROMISE SOLUTION BY DEFAULT. SEE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE ~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODELS CONCERNING A DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING IN ON CALIFORNIA TUESDAY, A DEEP CYCLONE/UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT, AND TROUGHING LEAVING NEW ENGLAND. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED IN THESE AREAS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH