MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1212 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 VALID JUN 29/1200 UTC THRU JUL 03/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE FLORIDA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) GIVES THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND THE NHC SPECIALIST YESTERDAY AT 17Z/1 PM EDT, SO IT IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE ~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE GREAT LAKES, A DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING HAIDA GWAII, AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CA TUESDAY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED IN THESE REGIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH