MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 227 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014 VALID JUL 06/1200 UTC THRU JUL 10/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND ECMWF ...WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.. PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS ARE A BIT BETTER DEFINED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM WHICH ARE A TAD WEAKER. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYS LIFTING NEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WELL EAST OF THE EAST COAST. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOMMODATE THE MODEL SPREAD. ...UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN ADVANCING A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING SEEN WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...WILL PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS. ...UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST TUES AND WED... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT ADVANCES IN OFF THE PAC OCEAN AND INTO WRN CANADA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE PAC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z UKMET IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE NAM. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM ARE ALL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ARE THE GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER A 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON