MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 237 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2014 VALID JUL 07/0000 UTC THRU JUL 10/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF ALONG WITH FINAL PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...MID-LEVEL WAVE GRAZING THE OUTER BANKS EARLY/MID MONDAY... FINAL PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z UKMET NOW COMING ON BOARD RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH WAS MORE OFFSHORE. THUS...A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WILL SUFFICE GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING. ...MEAN UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF NORTH AMERICA... ...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY... FINAL PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH 09/0000Z...BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL ANCHOR A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR OF THE CONTINENT. MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH 48 HOURS...09/0000Z...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS. MORE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE SECONDARY BATCH OF ENERGY SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION VERSUS THE QUICKER 00Z NAM/21Z SREF MEAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z UKMET...A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN LOOKING MORE LIKE THE SLOWER ECMWF SUITE. THE PREFERENCE WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN THE RECENT TREND. ...UPPER TROF CROSSING WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID-WEEK... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER TROF SKIRTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS CONFINED TO CANADA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ENOUGH SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WILL BE RECOMMENDED. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER MORE THAN EARLIER SO THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... RUBIN-OSTER