MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1258 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ENERGY SHEARING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA IN 2-3 DAYS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE 15/00Z CANADIAN REMAINS A DEEP OUTLIER. WHILE THE NCEP MODELS SHOWED A GENERALLY SLOWING OF THE FEATURE ON DAY 3...A NON CANADIAN COMPROMISE HERE IS STILL PROBABLY A REASONABLE ATTEMPT AT DETERMINING PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF THE FEATURE. WILL RE-EVALUATE WHEN MORE OF THE 12Z NON NCEP GUIDANCE IS IN. SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COLD TROUGH/DEEP CYCLONE IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE DEEPER AND TRACKS THE FEATURE FURTHER NORTH THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. -- OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, PREFER A NON-NAM/UKMET COMPROMISE TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... BANN