MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1256 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014 VALID JUL 17/1200 UTC THRU JUL 21/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURS AND FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS SIMILAR WITH THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE MOVING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SAT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS...00Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS...AND HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC END UP FASTER AND NORTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH AGREEMENT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY SAT MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 00Z UKMET ALSO APPEARS TO GET A BIT AHEAD OF THE PREFERENCE...BUT IS THE NEXT CLOSEST TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SERIES OF UPPER WAVES IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BY SUN EVENING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON 00Z CMC CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WHAT STARTED AS A TREND IN THE 12Z GFS FROM WED IS NOW SEEN IN THE REMAINING MODELS WITH A BROAD CONSENSUS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE OCCURS LATE SUN OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THE 00Z CMC INDICATING A MUCH FASTER PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED LOW COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE PREFERENCE WILL BE AGAINST THE 00Z CMC GIVEN A LACK OF SUPPORT SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO