MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 229 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE ECMWF ...MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THIS SYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFF AMONG THE MODELS OVERALL...SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED ATTM. ...CLOSED LOW PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURS... ...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GEM AND 00Z UKMET HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AND ARE REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS SOLN REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ITS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 00Z NAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS/UKMET AND GEM SOLNS. WILL PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS SOLN ATTM BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THIS WILL APPLY AS WELL TO THE DETAILS OF THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TWD THE MIDWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. ...BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST BY FRI... ...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ALL THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SO WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON