MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 243 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VALID JUL 26/0000 UTC THRU JUL 29/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ...FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DID NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... ...WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT... PREFERENCE: GENERAL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE 00Z TREND IN THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NOW THE ECMWF...ARE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED LOW AS IT DIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN. THEN AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE...THE TREND IS FOR MAINTAINING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MON. AT THE SURFACE...THE TREND IS TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY LOW TRACK WITH PRIMARY LOW AS IT LIFTS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUE ON MON. ...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NORTHERN CA BY SUNDAY... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS NOTED...A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS SUGGESTED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... PEREIRA