MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1253 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 01/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ MEAN UPPER TROF ANCHORING OVER THE EAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD... THE CLOSED UPPER VORTEX WALLOWS AROUND JAMES BAY. THE SLIGHT NEG TILT TO THE TROUGH AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE BY FRI MORNING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE AND WPC WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE ON THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE. SOUTHERN PLAINS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS OVER SERN ID/NRN UT WILL SLOWLY CREEP SOUTH AND EAST ON TUES BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ARRAY OF IMPULSES TO GLIDE DOWN THE NWRLY UPPER FLOW. THE GREATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS TUES EVENING OVER SERN WY/ERN CO WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS... EXPAND OVERNIGHT INTO SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES BEFORE PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM INTO OK/EXTREME SRN KS FOR WED. THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT A BIT DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE SOUTH BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL STRETCH FROM THE ARKLATEX TO MS. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND PROGRESSION OF THIS DETAILED FEATURE WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH QPF. WPC WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE ON THE PATTERN AND FOR MORE ON THE QPF... PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST QPFPFD. CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A GOOD PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PAC TROPICAL ENTITY HERNAN GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE WEST. THIS FEATURE BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED LATE WED INTO THURS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA BEFORE LIFTING NNEWRD TO SERN OR/SRN ID. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER NV INTO SERN OR/SRN ID ON THURS. WPC REALLY PREFERS THE AGREEABLE DETAILS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FEATURE OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... MUSHER