MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1235 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 VALID JUL 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 03/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET IS STRONGER WITH ENERGY MOVING FROM NV INTO THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THAN SEEN ON THE OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE IT IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BELIEVE A WEAKER NON-UKMET SOLUTION IS IDEAL WITH THIS ENERGY, CLOSEST TO A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS. WITH ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY, THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS A DEEP OUTLIER -- ITS USUAL BIAS. A NON-CANADIAN SOLUTION LOOKS BEST IN THIS REGION PER THE CANADIAN'S BIAS. CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHOICES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE. TROUGH IN THE PLAINS/EAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH