MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1249 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014 VALID AUG 01/0000 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. MEAN TROF CONTINUING TO ANCHOR THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH 00Z/03 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF BLEND AFTER 00Z/03 CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST NORTH WITH THE COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND ON SAT...COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z NAM/GFS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BETTER IN KEEPING THE FRONT CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BUT LESS NORTH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF. AFTER SAT...THE 00Z NAM...00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FORM A DECENT COMPROMISE AFTER ROUGHLY 00Z/03 WHILE THE 12Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...LIKELY TIED TO A QUICKER UPPER LOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED WITH A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-12Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE EVOLVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z CMC...THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH THE 12Z CMC SLOWER/SOUTH. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO