MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1218 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 VALID AUG 16/0000 UTC THRU AUG 19/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CALIFORNIA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE LIKE YESTERDAY, THE 12Z UKMET DROPPED THE BULK OF THE ENERGY MORE SOUTHWEST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, FAVOR A NON-UKMET COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT DEPTH ISSUES ALOFT, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. OPT FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO DEAL WITH THE LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS SHALLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ULTIMATELY QUICKER, BECOMING OUT OF PHASE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AS EARLY AS MONDAY. SINCE THE OTHER GUIDANCE MAKES A STRONG CONSENSUS, WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS, PREFER A NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ATLANTIC CANADA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH