MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 307 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 VALID AUG 18/0000 UTC THRU AUG 21/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DID NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. CLOSED LOW DROPPING OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING THROUGH CA, THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE DROPS THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE COL IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, WHICH ALLOWS IT TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS MERRY WAY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT QUITE GET THE SYSTEM PAST THE COL, SO IT SWEEPS THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NON-GFS CONSENSUS. A COMPROMISE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS BEST HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TROUGH BROADENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY SHIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WED/THU SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE HANDLES THESE FEATURES SIMILARLY. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS BEST TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ...500 HPA FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH