MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 VALID SEP 08/1200 UTC THRU SEP 12/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND PREFERENCES ...SPLIT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.. PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE CLUSTERING AND MINIMAL SPREAD OTHER THAN THE NAM WHICH ALLOWS FOR MORE RAPID AND AGGRESSIVE PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS CROSSING THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THEREFORE...RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF. ...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OTHER THAN THE UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE WEAKER AND MORE OFFSHORE...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND HAVE MORE SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... JAMES