MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 253 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014 VALID SEP 25/0000 UTC THRU SEP 28/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IMPACTING THE EAST INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/ AND 24/12Z ECMWF ENS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS STAYED IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 24/12Z CMC REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN SHOULD DEPICT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES. WEAK CLOSED LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE UPPER MISS VALLEY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW BROAD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK CLOSED LOW NEAR THE UPPER MISS VALLEY...WITH PLACEMENT THAT DANCES AROUND THE AGREEABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 24/12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A WEAK MID LVL LOW CENTER DEVELOPING OVER TX...WHICH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ECMWF AND THE NCEP GUIDANCE HAD GOOD...BUT NOT GREAT...AGREEMENT AMONGST THEMSELVES AND HAD REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET BOTH WEAKENED THE AMPLITUDE OF ANY DISTURBANCES. THINK THE GFS/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS ECENS MEAN WORK BEST HERE. DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH SAT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BUT THEY ALL AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. THE NAM/UKMET TEND TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS BY 28/00Z WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ECMWF AND GFS WERE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLNS WHILE THE CMC WAS A SLOW OUTLIER. GIVEN THE SUPPORT THAT THE GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THEIR SOLN. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... BANN