MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1235 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 VALID OCT 12/1200 UTC THRU OCT 16/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF AGAIN HAS STRONGER SUPPORT FROM THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INVOLVING BOTH THE EC AND THE GEFS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE VERY STRONG TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS GENERALLY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS-PARALLEL RUNS AS WELL. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z GEM ARE THE FASTEST SOLNS TO EVOLVE THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE ERN U.S. ALONG WITH A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE 00Z UKMET FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF LED CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM SPLITS THE DIFF BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND FASTER GFS. WILL PREFER A SOLN AGAIN TWD THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS STRONGER GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. ...DEEP TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS INDICATE A RATHER DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST TUES AND WED WHICH THEN PIVOTS NEWD INTO SWRN CANADA. A PARADE OF SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN UPSTREAM OVER THE PAC OCEAN SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AIM FOR THE PAC NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...BASED ON REASONABLE GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON