MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 240 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 VALID OCT 24/0000 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS A SLIGHTLY DEEP OUTLIER ALOFT ACROSS MT EARLY MONDAY, AND ITS SURFACE SOLUTION IS MORE DEPRESSED THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS, NOT SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IS OTHERWISE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THE 00Z NAM IS STRONGER WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, WHICH LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY MORNING, OUTRACING THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH