MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 233 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 VALID OCT 27/0000 UTC THRU OCT 30/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED/THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z NAM, WHICH IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA/ DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AK TUESDAY CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED/THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, ITS USUAL BIAS. PREFER A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE CONSIDERING THE BREADTH OF THE RIDGE UPSTREAM. TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A DEEP OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAIN CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES. THE 00Z GFS IS A QUICK/WEAK OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES. THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF ARE IN BEST TOLERANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH