MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1126 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 VALID NOV 15/0000 UTC THRU NOV 18/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE ITS SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORN EVENTUALLY SWINGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON 00Z GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY QUICKER THAN A VAST MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN AGREEMENT FROM THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO BE SLOWER...A NON GFS COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WILL BE PREFERRED. POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHING THE N-CNTRL U.S. ON SUN WITH EVENTUAL UPPER TROUGH ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SIMILAR WITH THE EARLY EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 00Z NAM A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS...THE UNPREFERRED QUICKER GFS TO THE SOUTH MAKES THE GFS LESS LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE 12Z UKMET IS A BIT SLOW AND 12Z CMC A BIT FAST...COMPARED TO THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD AND ENSMEBLE MEANS...SO THEREFORE...THE 12Z ECMWF WILL BE RECOMMENDED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO