MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 356 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 VALID APR 22/0000 UTC THRU APR 25/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST/MIDWEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AT 500 HPA AND 700 HPA, THOUGH THE FULL SUITE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE FEATURES. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL DEAL WITH THIS ISSUE EFFECTIVELY, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THU/FRI SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY SYSTEM MOVING ALONG WESTERN US/CAN BORDER WED/THU DEEP CYCLONE MEANDERING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH