MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1237 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 VALID MAY 10/1200 UTC THRU MAY 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. CLOSED LOW DROPPING OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY NAM SOLUTION, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT DEPTH ISSUES. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THESE SYSTEMS. SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THIS SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING CONFLUENT/FAST FLOW, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY QUICKER SOLUTION. THE 00Z CANADIAN WASHES THIS SYSTEM OUT AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING -- A UNIQUE SOLUTION AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE FLOW PATTERN THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST, AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM ANA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC ADVISORIES THE LATEST NHC FORECAST RESEMBLES A NON-UKMET COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WEAKENING CYCLONE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH