MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 235 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 VALID MAY 10/1200 UTC THRU MAY 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. CLOSED LOW DROPPING OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NW WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY NAM SOLUTION, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THESE SYSTEMS. SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THIS SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING CONFLUENT/FAST FLOW, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY QUICKER SOLUTION. THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET NEARLY WASH THIS SYSTEM OUT AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE FLOW PATTERN THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING, THOUGH IT HAS TRENDED WEAKER. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST, AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC ADVISORIES THE LATEST NHC FORECAST RESEMBLES A 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WEAKENING CYCLONE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH