MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 VALID JUN 05/1200 UTC THRU JUN 09/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA THE APPROACHING HURRICANE BLANCA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF OR UKMET/GFS COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT CONFIDENCE: SEE NHC ADVISORIES FOR BLANCA THE GUIDANCE HANDLES BOTH THE ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS LEAVES HURRICANE BLANCA AS THE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY, BOTH TRACK-WISE AND RAINFALL-WISE. NHC'S PREFERENCE IS CLOSEST TO A 12Z ECMWF OR 12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER SUN/MON SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH