MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 233 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2015 VALID SEP 07/0000 UTC THRU SEP 10/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. HURRICANE LINDA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC ADVISORIES THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR LINDA IS CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES CONCERNING THIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING HURRICANE. WAVE ENTERING WESTERN CANADA TUESDAY ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO ND/GREAT LAKES WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION WITH THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TIMING ISSUES WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS STAYS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEANS, AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. RETROGRADING UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF CYCLONE LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY & TRAINING COLD FRONT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH