MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 VALID OCT 01/1200 UTC THRU OCT 05/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...HURRICANE JOAQUIN... THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST EAST TRACKING MODEL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE ECMWF TAKES JOAQUIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY 84 HRS. THE 00Z CMC IS THE FLIP SIDE IS THE FARTHEST LEFT AND TAKES JOAQUIN WEST AND INTO EASTERN NC BY 72 HRS. THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET ARE WEST OF THE ECMWF BUT WELL EAST OF THE CMC SOLUTION. AFTER ABOUT 60 HRS...THE NAM BREAKS TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS/UKMET CAMP...AND BY 84 HRS...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ACTUALLY REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A POSITION ABOUT 225 NM WEST OF BERMUDA. THE 15Z NHC FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY CLOSEST TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE 12Z CMC TO THE LEFT...AND THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ALL TO THE EAST. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON JOAQUIN. ...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY INFLUENCE THE PATH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 00Z CMC SHOWS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN...WHICH IS A RESULT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING QUICKER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM TO AN EXTENT HAS A RATHER STRONG INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN AS WELL...BUT JUST NOT TO THE AGGRESSIVE EXTENT OF THE CMC. THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A SLOWER ADVANCE OF HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY COMPARISON...AND THESE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND TOWARD A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEAR BERMUDA. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN FAVOR A SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS NEAR BERMUDA THAT LENDS SUPPORT FOR THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN AT LEAST TAKING JOAQUIN FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST VERSUS THE NAM AND CMC SOLUTIONS. REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET WILL BE PREFERRED BASED ON STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. ...HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT. THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES A SLOWER OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC ARE GENERALLY THE FASTEST...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE DEPTH OF THE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION...WITH THE UKMET AND CMC MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE MEANS AS PER THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN. ...UPPER LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DAMPENING THIS SYSTEM OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI... ...ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE STATE OF CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI...WITH THE ENERGY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SOUTH DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVERALL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE INTERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND PREFER A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. ...STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE GIVEN A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN...A COMPACT BUT ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z CMC TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DROPPING THE ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF AND THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON