MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 247 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 VALID OCT 01/1200 UTC THRU OCT 05/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF ...HURRICANE JOAQUIN... THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE NOW THE FARTHEST EAST DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS TAKE JOAQUIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY 84 HRS. THE 12Z CMC ON THE FLIP SIDE IS THE FARTHEST LEFT AND TAKES JOAQUIN WEST AND INTO EASTERN NC BY AROUND 72 HRS. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ARE CLUSTERED IN BETWEEN CAMPS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HRS...BUT THEREAFTER THE NAM BREAKS RATHER HARD TO THE LEFT AND TRACKS JOAQUIN CLOSER IN TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THE GFS KEEPS THE STORM NOTABLY FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. THE 15Z NHC FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY CLOSEST TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE 12Z CMC TO THE LEFT...AND THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF WELL TO THE EAST. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON JOAQUIN. ...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY INFLUENCE THE PATH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 12Z CMC SHOWS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN...WHICH IS A RESULT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING QUICKER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM TO AN EXTENT HAS A RATHER STRONG INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN AS WELL...BUT JUST NOT TO THE AGGRESSIVE EXTENT OF THE CMC. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z UKMET SHOW A SLOWER ADVANCE OF HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY COMPARISON...AND THESE MODELS SHOW JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND TOWARD A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEAR BERMUDA. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN FAVOR A SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS NEAR BERMUDA THAT LENDS SUPPORT FOR THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN AT LEAST TAKING JOAQUIN FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST VERSUS THE NAM AND CMC SOLUTIONS. REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED BASED ON STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...AND THIS IS WITH THE IDEA THAT THE UKMET MAY BE A TAD TOO SLOW DIGGING HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. ...HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT. THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z CMC ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM IS NOW THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WELL CLUSTERED IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THEIR CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. ...UPPER LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DAMPENING THIS SYSTEM OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI... ...ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE STATE OF CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI...WITH THE ENERGY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SOUTH DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVERALL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE INTERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND PREFER A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. ...STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE GIVEN A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN...A COMPACT BUT ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CMC TEND TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DROPPING THE ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF AND THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON