MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1237 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...HURRICANE JOAQUIN... THE 00Z CMC CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INVOLVING THE TRACK OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE CMC TAKES THE STORM INTO EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY SUN. THE 12Z NAM WHICH HAS ALSO GENERALLY BEEN WELL LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AS WELL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEP CLOSED LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND CAPTURE JOAQUIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND ALLOWS JOAQUIN TO DO A CYCLONIC LOOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUN AND MON. THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ARE AGAIN ALL WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKE THE STORM NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BY ABOUT 100 TO 125 NM. THEREAFTER THESE MODELS TAKE JOAQUIN WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA. THE 15Z NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES JOAQUIN WELL EAST OF THE CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON JOAQUIN. ...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE PATH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 00Z CMC AND 12Z NAM AGAIN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING THEIR HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE IN A MANNER THAT ALLOWS HURRICANE JOAQUIN TO BE CAPTURED. THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SHOW STRONGER CLUSTERING ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER HEIGHT FALLS EVOLUTION...AND ALL SHOW JOAQUIN ESCAPING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. ...HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST CANADA... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SAT. THE 00Z CMC GRADUALLY BECOMES THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE STRONGEST. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE UKMET AND 12Z CMC ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM IS NOW THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WELL CLUSTERED IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THEIR CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. ...UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI... ...ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SUN... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...WITH THE ENERGY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SOUTH DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVERALL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE INTERIOR. THUS A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE GIVEN A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN...A COMPACT BUT ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY MON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MON...BUT GRADUALLY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF PLACE THEIR CLOSED LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FOCUSED OVER MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CMC AND 12Z NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY COMPARISON. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GFS/ECMWF CLUSTER...WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE NAM/CMC/UKMET CAMP. WILL PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP FOR NOW. ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION BY MON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z UKMET ALSO GENERALLY THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z CMC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING. WILL PREFER THE 12Z GFS AND THIS POINT. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON