MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 243 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF ...HURRICANE JOAQUIN... THE 12Z CMC HAS NOW FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...BUT IS STILL A BIT LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CMC TAKES THE STORM OFF THE EAST COAST AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MON. THIS LEAVES THE 12Z NAM AS THE FARTHEST LEFT/WEST MODEL AND IT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEP CLOSED LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND CAPTURE JOAQUIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND ALLOWS JOAQUIN TO DO A CYCLONIC LOOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUN AND MON. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE AGAIN ALL WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKE THE STORM NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BY ABOUT 100 TO 150 NM. THEREAFTER THESE MODELS TAKE JOAQUIN WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND CLUSTER THE BEST VERSUS ANY OTHER MODEL AT THIS POINT THROUGH THE DAY 3 PERIOD. THE 15Z NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES JOAQUIN WELL EAST OF THE CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS...AND IS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON JOAQUIN. ...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE PATH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 12Z NAM AGAIN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING THEIR HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE IN A MANNER THAT ALLOWS HURRICANE JOAQUIN TO BE CAPTURED. THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF ALL SHOW STRONGER CLUSTERING ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER HEIGHT FALL EVOLUTION...AND ALL SHOW JOAQUIN ESCAPING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MEANTIME. THE 12Z CMC HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY STILL SHOWS A BIT TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND JOAQUIN ITSELF. GIVEN BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. ...HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST CANADA... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SAT. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS LIKELY A BIT TOO STRONG AND A LITTLE TOO SLOW. BASED ON GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING OTHERWISE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WILL PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. ...UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRI... ...ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AND SUN... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...WITH THE ENERGY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SOUTH DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVERALL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE INTERIOR. THUS A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE GIVEN A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SAT AND SUN...A COMPACT BUT ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY MON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MON...BUT GRADUALLY THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS PLACE THEIR CLOSED LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE 12Z CMC GRADUALLY BECOMES A BIT SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DROPPING THE ENERGY DOWN TO THE SOUTH...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM ARE SHIFTING THEIR CLOSED LOW EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. 00Z UKMET/00Z CMC AND 12Z NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY COMPARISON. THE 00Z ECENS MORE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GFS/ECMWF CLUSTER...WITH THE 12Z GEFS MEAN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE NAM AND UKMET CAMP. WILL PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP FOR NOW. ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION BY MON. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 12Z UKMET ALSO GENERALLY THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING. WILL PREFER THE 12Z GFS AND THIS POINT SINCE IT OFFERS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER AND SLOWER CAMPS AND DOES TEND TO HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON