MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 241 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2015 VALID OCT 08/0000 UTC THRU OCT 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS A SLOW OUTLIER -- ITS USUAL BIAS -- WHILE THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE QUICKEST -- ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES. THE UKMET ALSO HAD A BONUS CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, AN IDEA THE ECMWF TRENDED AWAY FROM. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z NAM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST SHORTWAVE SAT/SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS QUITE DEEP/SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, SO WILL PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE OHO ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE CPHC ADVISORIES THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED-LOOKING HURRICANE FROM CPHC RESEMBLES A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE THE LATEST CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER (CPHC) ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST ON THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT UPPER LOW RETROGRADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM AZ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WHILE THEY ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER 48. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH