MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 234 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 VALID OCT 12/1200 UTC THRU OCT 16/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND PREFERENCES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT. UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA... PREFERENCE: ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE SOLUTION SPREAD HAS NARROWED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS BUT REMAINS MODEST AT THIS TIME...WITH THE NAM/GFS FASTEST TO ENTER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE UKMET/CANADIAN SLOWEST...AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE EXISTING SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE...RECOMMEND THE ECMWF UNTIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW GREATER CONVERGENCE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY... PREFERENCE: SREF MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SUBTLE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER. RECOMMEND ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT AND/OR CONTINUITY DEVELOPS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... JAMES