MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1211 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 VALID OCT 14/1200 UTC THRU OCT 18/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST... PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE NAM LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/00Z ECMWF PROVIDING THE MOST REASONABLE APPROXIMATION OF THE LINGERING SOLUTION ENVELOPE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH INFLUENCING THE WEST COAST FRI NGT/SAT... PREFERENCE: 2/3 00Z ECMWF TO 1/3 GFS CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH IS AFFECTED BY THE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF NEAR THE SLOW AND FAST EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. WITH MORE SOLUTIONS FAVORING THE FASTER ECMWF...INCLUDING THE NAM AND 00Z UKMET...RECOMMEND A 2/3 ECMWF TO 1/3 GFS BLEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THU-FRI... PREFERENCE: GFS OR 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE NAM LIES NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE IS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE EITHER THE GFS OR 00Z ECMWF. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... JAMS