MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1108 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2015 VALID NOV 01/1200 UTC THRU NOV 05/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO IMPACT THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE THE 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIS SYSTEM. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET WAS PREFERRED HERE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SHORTWAVE/LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE QUICKEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE, ITS USUAL BIAS. OTHERWISE, THE EXISTING CONSENSUS LIES BETWEEN THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM TRACKING FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE SLOWER 00Z CANADIAN, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY-TUESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH