MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 137 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015 VALID NOV 01/1200 UTC THRU NOV 05/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO IMPACT THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OUTSIDE THE 12Z GFS BRINGING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIS SYSTEM. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET WAS PREFERRED HERE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SHORTWAVE/LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE EXISTING CONSENSUS LIES BETWEEN THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM TRACKING FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY-TUESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH