MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1114 AM EST WED NOV 04 2015 VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 08/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. ENERGY BRIEFLY TRAPPED NEAR AZ FRI NIGHT/SAT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS/COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET WAS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS ENERGY TRAPPED NEAR SOUTHERN AZ, WHICH SHOWS UP BEST AT 700 HPA. WITH A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT BASIN, HAVING THIS SYSTEM REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IS A REASONABLE MOVE. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE TO MINIMIZE THE UKMET ISSUE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS/NEAR THE LOWER 48 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS SLOW WITH A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC FRIDAY, THIS DID NOT SEEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OR PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH