MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 132 PM EST THU NOV 05 2015 VALID NOV 05/1200 UTC THRU NOV 09/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. ENERGY BRIEFLY TRAPPED NEAR OK/KS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE POSITION SPREAD HAS MINIMIZED, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN TRENDING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CANADIAN STILL HAS ISSUES TO WORK OUT, AS IT SPLITS THE SYSTEM IN TWO AND CLOSES OFF A 500 HPA LOW NEAR THE KS/CO/NE BORDER LATE SUNDAY. THE COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF LOOKS BEST HERE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH CONFIDENCE NO BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH