MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 205 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 VALID NOV 10/0000 UTC THRU NOV 13/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 0Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE... CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING TROUGH OHIO VALLEY TUES AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WED WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS GULF COAST REDEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED AND LIFTING NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON GEM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY. THE GEM/UKMET BOTH APPEAR TO BE ON THE STRONGER/WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE 0Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF DO SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...BUT ARE OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. THUS WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THESE THREE AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE REASON TO STRONGLY PREFER ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER. THERE DO SEEM TO BE SOME SLIGHTLY LARGER DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...BUT AGAIN A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS PROBABLY BEST FOR NOW UNTIL TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. EITHER WAY THE DIFFERENCES ARE STILL SMALLER THAN WHAT WE COULD BE SEEING ON A DAY 3 FORECAST. FINAL UPDATE: THE NEW 0Z UKMET HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE LOW TRACK/STRENGTH UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE 0Z GEM STILL APPEARS TO BE A STRONG/WEST OUTLIER THOUGH AND IS NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST WED... DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER CO...DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. OVERALL MODELS REMAIN WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. ONLY THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREFERENCE OF A NON UKMET SOLUTION. FINAL UPDATE: THE NEW 0Z UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT STILL REMAINS ENOUGH OF AN OUTLIER TO NOT BE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. THE 0Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NAM. MEANWHILE THE 0Z GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR AND A BLEND OF THE TWO CAMPS SEEMS THE BEST ROUTE AT THIS TIME. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WED EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURS NIGHT. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE WELL PROGGED CROSSING THE PAC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IT BECOMES A BIT MORE MESSY...WITH SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES PRESENT AS IT BEGINS TO PARTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG PLAINS LOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A COMPLEX SCENARIO SUCH AS THIS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME FRAME TOUGH TO REALLY GIVE A STRONG PREFERENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER GIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN...AND DIFFERENCES DO SEEM RELATIVELY MINOR. THUS WILL GO WITH A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR A PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME. FINAL UPDATE: IN GENERAL THE 0Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A SIMILAR SOLUTION DURING THE LATER THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THUS A CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF A GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS APPROPRIATE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... CHENARD