MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1124 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015 VALID NOV 12/0000 UTC THRU NOV 15/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY BROAD BUT DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE 00Z GFS APPEARS FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION, IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST FLOW PATTERN WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE SO ITS FASTER PROGRESSION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHERE THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER IS WITH THE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER, WHERE IT LIES WELL NORTH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOULD DEAL WITH THE GFS ISSUE NEAR THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER WHILE PRESERVING SOME OF ITS PROGRESSION. THIS PREFERENCE IS MADE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH