MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 129 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 VALID NOV 12/1200 UTC THRU NOV 16/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY BROAD BUT DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN AN ADJUSTMENT FROM THE 12Z CMC TOWARD THE CONSENSUS...THERE ARE NOW ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT TO OVER NY/PA FRI EVENING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE IS A TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BETWEEN THE NCEP MODELS AND NON NCEP MODELS BY 00Z/14...WHERE THE NCEP CAMP (NAM/GFS/SREF/GEFS) IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE NON NCEP CAMP (00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/ECENS) ARE SLOWER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS LIKELY THE SLOWEST. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER SINCE YESTERDAY...THE NON-NCEP CAMP HAS TRENDED MORE STRONGLY TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE LATEST MODELS. THE 12Z UKMET/CMC/ECMWF ALL TRENDED QUICKER...THOUGH STILL REMAIN A BIT BEHIND THE NCEP MODELS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT NOW TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO